The 2024 Midterms: What History Tells Us About The Upcoming Election

Moore To Consider: Welcome to more to consider. I'm here with my friend Charles. We just did a show where you're going to do another show. We're going to address another topic. Charles, my brother. What do you want to address?

Charles: Yes, The upcoming midterms. As to how the graphs are starting to switch. What was red and going up is red and going down and vice versa for the blue. And I seem to, ⁓ you I've been noticing a lot of Democrats are winning these special elections and they're flipping these

Moore To Consider: Yes.

Charles: red districts blue in places that you wouldn't have thought that they would, and especially in places that Trump won convincingly in the last election. remember was it 2020? No, I'm sorry. 2018. We were expecting this, this red wave and it didn't materialize. And I think this one's going to be even worse. I really do. hearing, I'm hearing a lot of quote unquote influencers that are on the right saying, ⁓ for all you people, they call them panicants. People panic about certain things that are saying that you're not going to vote for them, vote Republican this, this, upcoming November, you know that's going to do. And I'm like, I know what it's going to do. It's going to demonstrate that we're just not going to put up with the same OBS. time and time again, we're not going to be, we're not going to just like being lied to like some people are. We've kind of just had enough and the, Iran or Israel thing has been, it been the thing that's pushed a lot of people over the edge that when it comes to, just look at the people who, who actually got Trump in office. It wasn't. the diehard GOP people. Just think about all the places that he went to try to gain He went to the podcast world to gain support. And these that he was going to, they weren't GOP people. They were independents. And pretty much every single one them that I know of was like, screw the GOP this time. ⁓

Moore To Consider: No. You're right. Absolutely. And they were non-war people.

Charles: They were non war people. That's exactly they were. They were truly American first. ⁓ yeah. He's definitely pissed off his base. And they were the true American first or America first people, the phony GOP American first people. So I ⁓ I don't see how this is going to be good for the GOP comes come because they've lost that, that few percentage of people.

Moore To Consider: Yeah. If you're saying he's pissed off his base, you're right.

Charles: who actually got them over the top last time. They're not there any longer. All because of this war that people can't, I've yet to get a direct answer out of people. How does this benefit the United States? I just, I can't see it.

Moore To Consider: All right. Two, two things going on, but I just, the thing that crossed my mind right off the top, when you said how things are shifting and whatever. First thing that crossed my mind is when's the last time a president didn't lose seats from his or her, well, it'd be his party, to this point in history. ⁓ has any pre, you know, the last president didn't lose.

Charles: Only time I could come to It was Bush Bush ⁓ 2002.

Moore To Consider: Which one? You're exactly right. You're exactly right. The last time. And it has not been much of a history of not losing. um, historical significance, the midterm election was notable as it marked the first time since the civil war, their president's party gained seats in both houses since the civil war. The success was attributed to various factors, but a lot of it was a nine 11 attacks. So.

Charles: Yes.

Moore To Consider: Yeah, that's, let's face it. That's what it was. In contrast, most presidents typically face losses in midterms. Making Bush's accomplishments in 2002 particularly significant. Now also, 9-11 was about as big as it gets. You know, we've got from the American civil war or, uh, you know, with the war of 1812 burned down the white house, civil war to, um, the main Lus, uh, Lusitania, know, there's all these, Pearl Harbor, 9-11 is huge.

Charles: Yeah.

Moore To Consider: Right. It's huge in history. But I think part of what you're saying this going to probably go from, could have expected to lose seats and lose the house for sure. And very possibly now maybe lose the Senate.

Charles: I don't even think, I don't, going to go to catastrophic, but I really prior to this, prior to June of last year, when they bombed Iran the first time, that he was going to gain seats. Everything that was going on, it was into positives. Everything. And then,

Moore To Consider: to being catastrophic. Well, here's the big question. Can the economy however this plays out in Iran, work up or work out well enough by say mid summer for there to be a rebound? Or do you think that there's people that were in his camp that are already decided? Not that said, I'm done with him.

Charles: If I were I don't think the war, it's not just the war itself. If I were a Democrat, this is what I would be saying. Yeah, this war, this unnecessary war is costing us between one and two billion dollars a day that we could be spending here in the United States.

Moore To Consider: Well, I already saw, I already saw a film. What is the lady's name on CNN? Is it bash? Dana bash. I believe it was her. It has popped up on YouTube. It was a short, but she did an interview with Elizabeth Warren. And this was like a month or so ago, maybe, you know, within the last 60 days, month to two months ago. And she.

Charles: Aren't you still hurting? Dana Bash.

Moore To Consider: Bash was like sitting in her car, starting this short on YouTube. And then she shows the video. She goes, I just did a really interesting interview with Elizabeth Warren and Elizabeth Warren says what we have to hammer is the economy. We got to get off all the social issues. Nobody wants, and you know, which ones we're talking about. Stop it. Shut up about that. The, the opportunity is now exposed to take back now. I would ask this too, the house goes the way I think it will, you know, what's happening. It's impeachment day one. ⁓ many more times he can be impeached would probably be, do you think there's going to be the political power to remove him? I think there would be because he can't run again.

Charles: Yeah. Yes.

Moore To Consider: Like I think there'd be Republicans that would flip over too, to get rid of them. And then let's face it, now that we have these hostilities started, I don't know, they're to put Vance in office? I mean, I guess they would, you know, if that's what they're going to do. Right. Exactly. So they put, or did they go after him too? You they impeach him the next day. They're going to impeach him again. Look, there is nothing these people want more than historically three times a loser, three times impeached and got rid of him the last time.

Charles: Yeah, by default. No, no sir. Yeah. Yeah. This, the thing that I don't understand about Trump when it comes to this, you couldn't see all of this coming.

Moore To Consider: There's nothing. I don't know that he cares.

Charles: Yeah, but he honestly, he should care. He, I've heard people say that Trump was going to ruin the GOP. can't think of a better way to ruin it. I can't.

Moore To Consider: Well, we can get into, you know what mean? Well, I think it was already ruined and, I think it was ruined. mean, okay. So let's go back and do some, and again, I'm doing the barbershop talk, couple of friends sitting around talking to barbershop. We don't really know what the hell we're talking about, but we're spit balling. But I think this is fair. I remember Frank Lutz, you know, was just like because he was the one that asked the question when Trump, you know, famously said, well, I don't really think of McCain as being a war hero. He got captured. like my heroes to not get, you know, with that thing.

Charles: Okay.

Moore To Consider: And you you've seen this whole replay of the 2016. I just knew the next day he was done as a candidate. And he went up X number of points in South Carolina where he said it. And it's because those are the states that send their kids off to the wars. And that's why they didn't really mind it. And then he stuck to Jeb Bush, you know, so we know, we saw what was happening. A lot of that destruction of the field of Republicans, the garden variety, that time GOP types.

Charles: Bye.

Moore To Consider: A lot of his destruction of them was I'm different. I won't send your kids off to useless wars, et cetera. We know that. Then you started to slowly see some of them come around to Trump, the ones that were never Trump on. Yeah. Okay. Well, he's going to get the nomination. So I think the people that said he reformed the party in his image is absolutely true, but there's always been some people I think that have feigned. support of him that had just been waiting for this and they're just going to flip right back over to, cause they really never did like him. They, they, but if you were going to survive in the party, he was the party, he became the party and it pushed out some of the old school old guard people. And that's why, and that's why I think the cleansing of the party was necessary, but now look who's supporting him. You give me the look, you give me the look.

Charles: Yeah, that's what you're saying now, what you were just about to start. That's where I was going with this. That's why I had to look on my face. But go ahead, man. Go ahead.

Moore To Consider: You had to look because I said it was a cleansing of the party. I thought it was.

Charles: Right. Yeah. I can't.

Moore To Consider: I'm not saying though, but I'm saying look now who is now supportive of him. It was some of the same people that hated him years ago, five years ago, whatever, or really 10 years ago.

Charles: Yeah, the old people. Yeah, but give you an example. I give you an example of people who, whatever they support, I'm on the opposite side. John Bolton. John Bolton is praising Trump now. Jeb Bush is praising Trump now. ⁓ but that's, this is why I can't understand why Trump doesn't get, yeah, same thing. This is why Trump, Trump can't see

Moore To Consider: Yeah. Yeah. Did you expect anything different? Mike Pence! PENCE!

Charles: who's giving, who's cheering him on is the reason that we voted for him because he was against those people. I don't know what's wrong with him.

Moore To Consider: Well, you're, you're looking at it like, think what you're saying anyway, is you're looking at kind of like as someone political. Well, I think he would like to have his last two years, not be a total disaster and get impeached again. would imagine he doesn't want to get impeached again. And it's a guarantee. If he loses the house, he's going to at least get impeached. How many times has anybody's guessed, but it's going to happen. So, I do think.

Charles: YEP

Moore To Consider: There are people in a camp that are kind of, you know, I've heard the Trump derangements. I mean, we've all heard Trump derangement syndrome, but I've heard other people say, you know, it works both ways. There are also people that are deranged and he can't do anything wrong. Right? I mean, there's, there's that side of the equation too. But there are people that I've kind of seen in social media that are like, no, he's playing long game. Yeah. You know, all these strategic moves he's making and you're thinking that.

Charles: Yes.

Moore To Consider: He's being led around by his nose by, you know, Israel to do what he said. No, no, no. He really knows this is long-term make America great. All right. That's what you'd have to believe. He thinks that because doing what he's doing is not making him popular with his base. That's agreed upon. Right. So I don't know. mean, have to leave open that he thinks he's right in what he's doing and maybe he's wrong. Maybe he is very wrong.

Charles: Yeah. No. . look, only thing I know this is going to be a stretch. The only thing I can come up with is this is 12 D chess. My personal opinion, my theory here. that he's creating a situation, whereas... a person or a entity actually going to go away finally. Never be issuable. That's the only thing I can come up with, hm?

Moore To Consider: Run that by me again. You're saying that. doing certain things that might be considered in their benefit.

Charles: that's not in their benefit because I have seen countless videos of Israel being right now, completely decimated and they have ⁓ defense. And looking at this, I'm like, wow, what Israel can see this coming?

Moore To Consider: ⁓ bye, Aaron. So you're saying don't think he's playing the same, ⁓ level of whatever dimension chess you want to say that maybe he strikes a deal with Iran in the end and...

Charles: I don't think he cares. Well, first of all, Iran's not going to strike a deal with us anyway. We've lied to them too many times and we've lied to them too many times. Israel's lied to them too many times. They've tried to come to the table. Hezbollah tried to come to the table and before the negotiations were going to start the day before Israel bombs the hotel where all the negotiators are at. Pretty much the same thing happened with Iran. Whereas they were to have negotiations in Doha and what did Israel do? They bombed Doha. So Israel has no intentions on trying to to the table for peace. They could care less about peace. Okay, well now look what's happening to Israel.

Moore To Consider: All right. We've gone into the underbelly of what you, started with the midterms and now we've gone deep into what you think is really the underlying issue. So we're ⁓

Charles: ⁓ hold on. All right. Yes. Yeah, this is the underlying issue for pretty much everybody that I've talked to about this. I've yet to run into anybody who says that this was a good idea. No one. they're like, this stupid. You're putting our people in jeopardy. You're looking at the of gas and everything. With the price of fuel, this is not good for the economy.

Moore To Consider: So that's the next thing I was gonna ask. Right. Well, there's a, well, again, could be called a short-term pain. I do think that was one of the lines too, like short. Yeah. Cause I actually saw the thing where they showed every Fox commentator, a whole bunch of people that are kind of Trump supporters. you know, people that have been in the cabinet, people that are still loyal. They always laugh about how you can watch a lot of the alphabet, network agencies ⁓ and they agencies that.

Charles: This is not. Yeah

Moore To Consider: are saying the same talking points. I saw one of these montages where it's like five minutes of everybody going, well, there's going to be short-term pain, but there's going be long-term gain. And it just kept saying it. So that was definitely a White House talking point out there. I don't know. Well, would be a real interesting case study too. When do you think a lot of people decide to vote in the midterm? Like really decide to vote.

Charles: I think that, did you say when do a lot of people decide? ⁓ when.

Moore To Consider: Yeah, when, like when in time, when in time.

Charles: I would say it's probably less than a month before the election.

Moore To Consider: I think you're probably right. And I think it's going to be based on an emotional calculus at that time. So there is a possibility that by October, things are better, but if they keep going down, there may be some people that come hell or high water. If everything recovers and gas is a dollar 37 a gallon or at there's still going to be some people like, Nope, screw you, Trump. lied to me. And therefore you, you did things I'd said, no. But if things were to get really, really crazy, rosy by the end of the summer, maybe some people will come back or they just don't vote at all. But there's definitely an effort to flip this, which I want to ask you about this too. What exactly is going on with Virginia with all the Obama ads and the whole vote to April 21 vote? What exactly is the strategy on that?

Charles: I've only ever heard one because I don't really, I don't watch any TV or anything like that. haven't really listed a radio at all either. I heard one and honestly that one that I heard was on a podcast that I downloaded. I can't remember what the podcast was, but anyway, it was a podcast. I was like, wow. So Obama's running ads or they have an Obama run ads.

Moore To Consider: Mm-hmm.

Charles: the language in the ad is Just like pretty much everything that he says is a step deceptive. They're trying to say, we just want to keep things fair. We just only, only want to do this temporarily when it comes to the redistricting and stuff like that. I'm like, yeah, ⁓ let me go do some research on this. ⁓ no, no, it just needs to be blocked. ⁓

Moore To Consider: Well, I thought that very thing. This is what, you know, the internet saying Virginia voters will decide on a proposed proposed constitutional amendment that will allow the general assembly to temporarily adopt new congressional district maps before the new district maps will be drawn in 2031. But I just, I just think it's rich. I do. Um,

Charles: All right.

Moore To Consider: purpose, the amendment aims to restore fairness in elections by allowing the general assembly to read. So you have a Democrat controlled everything to my knowledge, the house, the Senate and the governor's mansion. And they're acting like, woe is us. You know, the ads are running a rich, you know, that, you know, Trump's trying to, know, remain in, not remain in office. He's doing the, he wants to have complete rule of the country for the next two years. And. And so basically what, mean, the way I took it when I first saw it, and this is basically supported by what I just read, we're going to screw with the way that the lines are drawn temporarily to overcome the fact they're trying to do the same thing.

Charles: Anybody with two brain cells to rub together would say, why is it that the Democrats who just won all of the seats and won all of the offices want to redistrict? They've already won. What else do you want? you saying that your wins were unfair? Is that what you're saying? That we to redistribute because you won? okay. None of that any sense whatsoever.

Moore To Consider: Impact, if approved, the amendment could lead to a partisan shift in Virginia congressional representation, changing the current split. You know what it is? Six-five to a projected 10-1 in favor of the Democrats. This is rich. So they're saying in the ads is vote yes for fairness so that we might possibly draw maps that would create a 10-1 ratio in Virginia.

Charles: What? No. Okay. ⁓ 10. Right. Do it. Yeah, it's crazy. You already won. What else do you want? That's the question that I don't hear people asking. I haven't really paid a whole lot of attention to it. done, let's just say I haven't paid too much attention to it when it comes to advertisement or commercials anything like that. ⁓

Moore To Consider: for Democrats. It's pretty wild. It's pretty wild. Well, wait a minute. Is this not saying, I know the vote is April 21. What they're trying to do is redraw the lines before this midterm election, instead of waiting until 2031 following the next census. So when you keep saying they've won already, they won already, what are you saying they've won already?

Charles: Yeah. Yes. Right. Yeah. So them saying we want fairness.

Moore To Consider: Mm-hmm.

Charles: don't quite understand. ⁓ the people who lose say it was unfair. Have you ever heard people who win say it was unfair? No. Then there's an ulterior motive behind it. They've already won everything.

Moore To Consider: Yeah, but I don't think they think of Congress as now 6'5 Democrat, as far as representation from Virginia, as a win.

Charles: No, no, no. What I mean by that is that's why I said they've already won. How much more fair do you need? Right? No, that's yes, they've won the state. So they won the state. And what they're trying to say is we want to win the state even more because it was unfair that we won the state.

Moore To Consider: You keep saying they've already won. They've won the state. Yes. No, I don't think that. I think what they're saying is we've won and we have the authority and power now with all the branches to run, but at the, at the federal level, we can also have dominance, but we got to jump the track and not wait till 2031 while we have the power. And here's how, and this is exactly how they're selling it. They're selling it Trump's evil. Cause they got that one clip where Trump's like, yeah, we do everything right. We're going to pick up five more seats across the country or something like that.

Charles: Yes, yeah. Ye- All right.

Moore To Consider: And then same voice guy comes over, stop Trump. ⁓ is trying to take over America. then again, they have the Obama thing vote. Yes. assure fair elections again. And I'm like, really? That's what's at stake here is fair elections. You don't, mean, I don't know. It just think it's rich, you know, because, now it has been. Well, they. Texas did get out in front a little bit and try to monkey around and try to gain some Republican seats, if I'm not mistaken. then was it Newsom when he started his whole appeal to that though, the problem was the only had like five Republican seats in the state, right? Yeah. I mean, it's like, you don't have any left. was ⁓ 40 % of the people in California consider themselves Republican. have like five seats. And what is it?

Charles: All right, yeah out of 45. Yeah, it didn't make any sense. Yeah, all because of redistricting.

Moore To Consider: And what is it like, 53 congressional seats?

Charles: I think it's 45.

Moore To Consider: Wait a minute. got, don't they have 50 some odd electoral votes? It's, it's, uh, it's the members of the house and Senate. It's their number of votes. California electoral votes. I thought they were over 50 now. 54. So that'd be 52 members. Yeah. Yeah. They have 52 members of the house or their, whatever they call general assembly, house of delegates, whatever they call it. Um,

Charles: I'm sorry. I got it backwards. ⁓ got it backwards. ⁓

Moore To Consider: And I think their split is, I think it's all but five. think something like that. Uh, yeah. California is one 54, Texas is 40. Okay. Split by party in the California house of representatives. I'm thinking it's like 47 to it's, it's 45 nine.

Charles: Okay.

Moore To Consider: And that, would include the members of the Senate, I guess, because that, that number just came to 54. But yeah, like nine Republicans. California's House of Representatives is currently 43 Democrats, seven Republicans, one independent one vacancy. There you go. So playing around with trying to pick up, Hey, we're going to go in there and get some of those Republicans out. You don't have too many places to shoot because this is not. ⁓

Charles: All right.

Moore To Consider: It's just not available. All right. So you think that the midterms are going to be lost.

Charles: Yes.

Moore To Consider: I know there's all these things you can bet on now. There's all these mechanisms to bet. Let's put this out here. I'm going to let you publicly wager. You don't have to tell me what you're going to wager, what do you think the odds though? All right. Let me start there first. What do you think the odds that, uh, Trump will be impeached again? If the Democrats take control of the house, what are the odds? A hundred percent. I agree with that. It's gotta be a hundred percent. Now, if what was the Senate coming out of, uh, 2024, wasn't it?

Charles: 100 % Yeah. ⁓

Moore To Consider: 53 54 Republicans? What's the split right now?

Charles: right now I think it's 50.

Moore To Consider: Yeah. Let me see.

Charles: 50 with independents, I think.

Moore To Consider: US Senate split by party. I thought it was more senators that were Republican. It's 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats and two independents. Okay. I thought it was 50 plus. I thought it was flirting with 54. I think one of the independents is kind of quasi Republican, whatever, but there's only 45 Democrats. know, one third runs every two years. So one third, and I don't know exactly.

Charles: It doesn't seem like it, but okay.

Moore To Consider: How many of those 53 Republicans are open seats or are being going to be running for reelection? But let's say it drops to 50 50 or better put, let's say it goes 51 49. out. If they, if they draft articles of impeachment again, he

Charles: No, but it has to be 16.

Moore To Consider: Yeah, on that vote it does, doesn't it? But now can't they, they'd also have to get 60 votes to get rid of the filibuster, right? They'd have to get 60 to get rid of it, to get it down to a simple majority. All right. But now I, well, then I'll ask the other question. Let's say it goes into 50 50 range. Do you think, do you think that, ⁓ there's going to be enough Republicans to get rid of them? You don't think.

Charles: I don't know. No, no, we'll just be back to we're just going to.

Moore To Consider: How many U.S. Senators votes does it take to remove the President on upon impeachment? I think you're right, it is the 60, and I'm just kind of wondering. Is there going to be enough that? Oh, actually we're both wrong. It's two thirds. That's right. It's, it's 67. Yeah. So it's going to take 67 votes. Yeah. Yeah. So he's probably going to be, he's probably going to be insulated from that, but he's going to get impeached again. And what would be interesting in the last few years, how many times would they impeach him?

Charles: this is super majority. Okay. okay. Honestly, man, they can impeach a guy every day. I don't really care. What I do care about is they're not going to... Not really.

Moore To Consider: Well, could make a mess to the country. Or you think things might actually be better if they're spending all their time impeaching him. They can't screw up other things. That's probably true.

Charles: Yeah, but they can't even get the SAVAC passed. So and that's a that's I have I have zero faith in Congress. I do. Yeah, it says a lot that they don't care about their constituents. That's what it says. And it's both sides.

Moore To Consider: Yeah! Yeah, that says a lot, doesn't it? It really does. Well, I think the number one rule is keep the gig. I mean, I think that's always number one.

Charles: Yeah, but how does that not help them keep a gig? That part I don't get.

Moore To Consider: I mean, what's the, what's the rate of incumbents being reelected?

Charles: I mean, I understand what you're saying, but what this is showing is that it's not just the Democrats who are using some shenanigans when it comes to elections that the Republicans are doing it to. That's what it shows. Yeah. But that's.

Moore To Consider: It's insanely high. Hell yeah! It's all, it's all in that. know, we know that. That's why, yeah. Yeah, but anyway, in, in an historical context, I think it needs, it says everything that Andrew Johnson, the first, Clinton, the second, Trump already twice. And so in the last, what, 30 years, we've gone from one to three impeachments and more is coming, but the whole thing's out of control.

Charles: Yeah. Yep. It is. No, I'm good, bro. Yeah. I'll be too. ⁓

Moore To Consider: All brother. Anything else you want to say on the way out? All right. Love you, man. Take care. All right. People listening more to consider, please like subscribe, comment, write neat things, right? Nasty thing. I don't know. Write anything. Write anything you want to say. Take care.

Charles: Yeah. ⁓